Edmunds.com: June Closes Strong to Keep 2012 Auto Sales at Solid Strength

Posted on June 28th, 2012 by Dealer in  News   Email This Post Email This Post

SANTA MONICA, Calif. — June auto sales continued at a healthy pace for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 13.9 million light vehicles, according to Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information. The projected SAAR indicates that sales gained more steam than expected at the end of the month after Edmunds.com projected a slower rate earlier this month.

“While 13.9 SAAR is not as impressive as the performance in the first quarter of this year, this month’s results are still strong, considering that deferred demand following last year’s earthquake has virtually dried up,” says Edmunds.com Senior analyst Jessica Caldwell. “But the healthiest sign for the industry is the pure volume of sales. June is expected to be the third highest-selling month since May 2008.”

Edmunds.com estimates that 1,270,901 new cars will be sold in June. The projected sales would be a 4.7 percent decrease from May 2012, but a 20.7 percent increase (unadjusted for number of selling days) from June 2011.

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume

June-12 Forecast

June-11

May-12

Change from June 2011*

Change from May 2012

GM

233,987

215,335

245,256

8.7%

-4.6%

Ford

201,980

193,421

215,699

4.4%

-6.4%

Toyota

184,512

110,937

202,973

66.3%

-9.1%

Chrysler

143,521

120,394

150,041

19.2%

-4.3%

Honda

126,610

83,892

133,997

50.9%

-5.5%

Nissan

88,113

71,941

91,794

22.5%

-4.0%

Industry

1,270,901

1,052,772

1,334,131

20.7%

-4.7%

*NOTE: June 2012 had 27 selling days; June 2011 had 26

 

Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 11.3 million vehicles in June, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.0 percent of total sales. An estimated 2.98 million used cars will be sold in June, for a SAAR of 37.0m (compared to 3.15 million – or a SAAR of 36.1 million – used car sales in May).

AUTOMAKER PERFORMANCE

Edmunds.com reports that every major automaker will report fewer month-over-month sales in June. But Japanese automakers Toyota (+66.3%) and Honda (+50.9%) will demonstrate the biggest year-over-year sales success of any of the Big 6 manufacturers this month. The results, however, will be misleading to casual observers, thanks to depressed sales last year in the wake of the Japanese earthquake.

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market Share

June 12 Forecast

Jun-11

May-12

Change from June 2011
(Percentage pts.)

Change from May 2012
(Percentage pts.)

GM

18.4%

20.5%

18.4%

-2.0%

0.0%

Ford

15.9%

18.4%

16.2%

-2.5%

-0.3%

Toyota

14.5%

10.5%

15.2%

4.0%

-0.7%

Chrysler

11.3%

11.4%

11.2%

-0.1%

0.1%

Honda

10.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2.0%

0.0%

Nissan

6.9%

6.8%

6.9%

0.1%

0.0%

In terms of market share, the top automakers will remain relatively flat compared to last month. The biggest shift will be seen by Toyota, whose share is expected to fall 0.7 percentage points from May. Year-over-year market share changes will again reflect the struggling state of earthquake-ravaged Japanese automakers last June, with Toyota and Honda each regaining much of their lost share.

About Edmunds.com, Inc.
Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information, launched in 1995 as the first automotive information Web site. Its acclaimed mobile site, Edmunds.com Android App and five-star Edmunds iPhone and iPad apps make car pricing and other research tools available for car shoppers at dealerships and on the go. Its automotive enthusiast web site, InsideLine.com, is the most-read car publication of its kind. Its highly regarded mobile site and iPhone app features the wireless Web’s most comprehensive gallery of automotive photos and videos. Edmunds.com Inc. is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, and maintains a satellite office in suburban Detroit. Follow Edmunds.com on Twitter@edmunds and fan Edmunds.com on Facebook.


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